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Thursday, September 19, 2019

Bearish September OPEX?

Update AM 9/20: 

Thursday (yesterday) made an apparent [y] wave top with [z] down due next.

The week after Sept Monthly Option Expiration is notorious for being down.  Usually, in a normal option expiration with the trend being up (as it is now, we have not seen new highs), we see a low either Monday or Tuesday.  

The Hurst cycle method sees a low between Monday and Wednesday, and we have a Sun/Moon cycle low due around Wed +/-.  The Jup/Sat Cycle saw a top on the 16th which came two TD's early on the 12th, and now sees one Saturday, and a low Friday next week,  The J/S is usually not off more than 2 TD's, putting a potential low as late as Wednesday next week for [z].

Still we have a sextile due late Tuesday that leads to a top, could it be a 'b' wave top of [z]? Or, a move from a Monday low to a Wed final top with a low toward the end of the week being [A] of an ABC drop into Oct 3 where we have Mercury and Mars changing signs as Pluto goes stationary direct? The top last year on Oct 3 was also a Wed with a 6 TD move down initially into the following Thursday. With the half day on July 3, Oct 3 fits better for the 85 TD low. 

Right now I'm giving a window of Monday/Wed next week for the [z] wave low and go from there.

The chart below shows the TLC lows, one due on the 18th of September and the next on the 20th. It looks like a double top reversal and a drop into the 8 TD low from Tuesday last week's low and that is the 20th on September Monthly Option expiration. Support is near 2951-57.

The resulting xyz drop launches what should be the final top of the series before we drop into October 2 and that is due on September 24th where Mercury in Libra sextiles Jupiter in Sagittarius.  The 9/19 aspect was Mars trine Pluto, a negative for Friday.  The Jupiter/Saturn Cycle sees a low on the 27th followed by a top on Sept 30.  The biggest part of the drop should be Oct 1-2 with a minimum target of 2840 taking out all the gaps below.

The wild card in all this is how the ringing cycle low due on or near November 4/5th comes about before the market turns up and makes new highs in mid December.

Another thing, the low I'm expecting Friday may come on Monday, which is the exact Hurst 20 TD low.  This would push everything out one day including the low expected on October 2 and the top expected on September 24. The TLC low sometimes extends out one TD.

I am raising my prices on Sept 24 on the Quarterly Subscription from $229 to $259 and the Annual from $600 to $695.  I'm running a special on quarterly and annual subscriptions for $195 and $495 until Sept 23.
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