Checkmate: The Market Looses

Market Update, 11:30 EDT-

The last Jup/Sat low turn and Solunar Low was Tuesday on the 4+1 TD low.  Now the Jup/Sat sees a High turn on Sept 16.  The Solunar sees a low on Tuesday the 17th.

The market is going to extremes here.  Yesterday was 7 TD's up, which is about as much as you get, so perhaps today will pull back some. We are at full moon top.  The Solunar see a top Sept 13-14 (which can bleed over into Monday)

We are at extremes here!  Cramer's S&P 500 famous overbought/oversold indicator is at +8, which is extreme! We have a potential 3 gap play with the 2 gap play highly likely (and maybe a 4th, the common gap at 2848)

Sept 5 was the orthodox top.  Sept 5 + 8 TD's is Sept 17 +/- 2.

The X Wave went from Sept 5 into Sept 10 or 3.5 TD's, so far Wave Y has gone 3 TD's and could easily go into a 3.5 TD top early Monday on a 4+1 gap up.  If this happens and I think it will from what I'm seeing here, then the 16 TD low will hit Tuesday (X and Y = in time) Z will be something different or the same, very interesting dilemma.

The 32 TD Top was due Wed and looks to go into a +3 mode, the 32 TD low is due on Thursday. Saturn goes direct on the 18th and should be near a low.  The solunar can invert from low to high, or high to low on occasion, which presents another dilemma as it could be pointing to the Monday high on Tuesday.

Now lets go back to the 4 TD lows.  It is possible we have one today as a 4-1 from Tuesday, which places the next low out until next Thursday on the 32 TD +/- 1 low.  This tell me that we should prepare for a huge sell-off into Thursday!

We have the 3 gap play potential still on the table and there is even a common gap at 2848, so a 4 gap play could even happen.

Today could reconcile an 8 TD low from Sept 3 (which was an 8-2), and next Thursday could reconcile a half cycle low (4 TD low +/- 1) cuz we going into a 16 TD low.  The last one hit on August 23 which was a 16-2 low. It evens out at 16+2 on Thursday +/- 2 TD, as the 16 TD low can run 16+4 (Even into Monday the 24th, another 8-2?).

 I have not see a 5 TD sell-off in years, not in this kind of market and seriously doubt we will see it here.  I believe the low will land closer to the 32 TD low on Thursday

So there is the answer! Expect a low on Thursday next week, but no later than Friday/Monday (doubtful Monday/ next week is OPEX, which is usually up, August 15 had a Full Moon low the day before OPEX, so I'm thinking Thursday due to the Equality of Waves principle in all three XY and Z time wise, especially with Saturn direct aspected on the 18th).

 The Jup/Sat has a turn date (variable) on Saturday Sept 21 (Friday +/-),  the Jupiter/Neptune Square third passage and close to the expected autumnal low.

My best guess given all the data is a Sept 19 low.  I also have a Cosmic Cluster turn due also on the 18th.

Has anyone seen the movie Blood Sport Kumite?  In the movie, the antagonist is actually killing his opponents mercilessly in the underground, illegal fight, even when they cry uncle.  When the protagonist (hero) starts to win the fight against the bad guy (the antagonist) throws blinding dust in his eyes, which turns the battle over to the bad guy, who in his arrogance and loving the cheers and boos of the crowd, thinks he has the good guy defeated so slows down the attack and plays to the crowd. 

After 3 or 4 unsuccessful attempts at beating his opponent, the hero drops to the floor in silence, cross legged and remembering (as a child) his aged master teaching him to fight with a blind fold on.  The bad guy thinks he has defeated his opponent, so he lets his guard down looking to go in for the kill. Of course, the bad guy is defeated horribly and of course the good guy has mercy on the bad guy who cries uncle, even though the bad guy had no mercy, the good guy lets him live.

 We are the good guy (bear) forced to the ground in this analogy. The market is the bad guy(bull).  Time to take a break and slow down. I think next week we go in for the kill. 

The point of this analogy, is sometimes in life, we have to be blinded so we can see.

I do not give advice.  My thoughts are for me and to those who are willing to learn.  The above example is only hypothetical even though it relates to current market conditions.


Market Update, 9:30 AM EDT 9/13: 

We are looking to the 4 TD top today (+/-1), and the top 16-1 TD's ago to get our answers as to when to short this pig. The answer should be 5 to 10 min into the session, or Monday or it has already occurred Thursday.  

Taking the hypothesis of the 60% used, at this point you have 40% left, I would only use 25% of remaining (keeping 75%) and buy Wed expiry in case the perfect Gann top comes in on Monday morning and the low is on the perfect Gann low (Tuesday).

 That will give you 75% remaining to hit it big.  Today, the market is struggling to go above yesterday's top on open especially the NASDAQ, which makes me suspicious.

I do not give advice.  My thoughts are for me.  The above example is only hypothetical.

Most people thing that a forecaster/trader has to be right more than wrong to make money in the market Wring.

I'm going to bless your socks off shortly! Did you know that you can be wrong 70% of the time and still make a killing in the market? What, you say?

Let me explain. There are times when the stock market comes to irrational extremes like we are in right now.  If you have been practicing proper money management as I have been touting, you are about not only have a huge cash increase shortly, but you are about to learn a valuable lesson in trading the market and the trader psychology.  

Most people who trade the market think they have to be right in their forecasts, or a leader like me has to be right 70-80% to make money, but this is one of the biggest fallacies and downfall of a trader.

Again, let me explain. What I'm about ready to reveal to you today is going to be the biggest revelation of your life.

You see in my analysis, I know where I'm right and where I'm wrong and I keep enough powder on hand (especially in option playing, but also In stop losses). 

You see you can have 5 or 6 stop losses and then the market turns into a huge gain because it is about recognizing when you are wrong and shifting into the right position either by going with the flow, or recognizing you were too early in your original thinking.

Let's look at the waves and cycles.  I know from my experience in Gann cycles and E-Waves that last Tuesday was not a Gann 8 TD low, it was a 4 TD low (4+1 from Sept 3, which was a 3+3 [2 little skippers] trading low or 8-2).

Considering the little skippers that I mentioned now, the 4-1 TD lows that skip along, we had (3+3) in the first grouping that became 8-2, now we are in the second grouping that come together to form the completion of the larger Gann 16 TD cycle low.

Now we have Tuesday Sept 10 as a 4+1, and now the next cycle is due to complete not only the the 8 TD cycle , but now the 16 TD cycle.  The previous grouping of 3's are still in order, that is the 8 TD low has to become 9 (3X3) or 3 little skippers combined or 8+1 to complete the pattern at 8+1 and 16-1 (the common 3 week low).

It is obvious that the full moon has created an inversion from low to high, that means the high is due Sept 11-13, not low! Staying with me? That cycle from August 22-23 is due right here from today into Monday! I expect that the 2900 level will be tested Monday, no lower than 2920.

Let's say you used up 60% of your option money on the wrong trades this week (hypothetical), you now have 40% left and a huge move down ahead to more than make up for your losses. Checkmate! The beast (market) looses, you win.  In the case of stops on futures, or ETF's you still make more than enough money to compensate.  The traders' mistake is worrying about the losses and not looking to the gains!

Ben Franklin said "Don't be penny wise and pound (today the $) foolish" Get it? You are so consumed with looking at the micro picture, that you take your eyes off the macro.  In essence, you get tunnel vision!  You let your emotions get involved (both fear or greed) and you drop the ball out of those emotions or even frustration and miss the bigger move.

I know that there has to be high next week surrounding around the FED announcement (either Wed/or early Thursday) to tag the 4 TD (we mustn't forget the highs either) highs... When was the last high? 4 TD's ago, Monday which brings us into today.  Following, the full moon high (not low).  Now lets look back at the orthodox high on Sept 5 and count forward 8 TD's.  That puts us into Tuesday next week (+/- 2 TD's). That is either today or Wed/Thursday or both. Ah, you forgot about both didn't ya. 

Doesn't it make sense? Mostly we tend to we think in polar opposites, but sometimes the answer is both! You know that the 32 TD low is due next week, and the 32 TD high was due 2 TD's ago, but we have a FED meeting too.  This market is going to extremes!

You have to have a low before you can have a high.  Especially even now with the whipsawing type market we are in, the cycles of high and lows become increased in magnitude and time.  That it is because we are in what Elliott termed "Bear Market" conditions (paraphrased).  Actually, you can have new highs and lows within these types of waves.

Emotions out, logic in.  Checkmate!

Black Swan Event Sept 12?

8/12 Mid Day Update: I give you my word, this thing is going down hard Friday.  The 5 week low can run as much as 28 TD and that is tomorrow.  The Bradley turn is tomorrow.  The last 3 week low was 14 TD's from August 5 and adding that on (14 TD's) = Sept 13.

Now it comes down to how much we go down.  The normal 3 Gap Play says we go below 2888, the 2 Gap Play (which shouldn't happen, but I'm giving it leeway anyway 'cuz of how high we've gone up) says we go down to near 2900.  The normal taking out of the last c wave up says we go down to and below 2891.  I'm getting NEG D's up the ying yang, so here it is:

Plan for at least around 2900 minimum and maximum 2870. This is an X wave, I know that much.  We have gone about 35/36 pts on this Y wave above the orthodox high on Sept 5 which was about 2985/86. This in and of itself is extreme! We are at 32+1 on the normal Gann 32 TD top from July 26. 

If we follow August 23, the low should occur 5 minutes before the close.

I'm still expecting a higher high (above 3021 SPX, maybe even new highs!) next week on FED day 9/18 and an even harder drop into 9/19 (or 9/20 latest)

This is the most insane market I have ever seen in my 35 years of trading!

8/12 AM Pre-Market update:  The futures on the SPX are up slightly about 7 pts on the European cut of rates.  This is really negative for the market.  The compression for a drop is getting extreme.  Today is TD 33 off the July 26 top or +1.  Tuesday had to be the 4 TD low.  The normal 8 TD low is actually due on a gap down into Friday morning,

Today is also a 4+1 from the 16 TD top last Thursday, is so extreme making this a 21 TD top! That's MAX!  Bottom line: I expect a sell-off no later than into late Friday. 


This is an addendum to the previous post on 9/10 which is in the archives:

First of all, the filter for the X wave low was and is between Sept 10-12 (the astro aspect) and 11-13 (solar aspect), which leaves only one left: the 12th.  There is a Bradley turn due Sept 12-13 as I said before.  The Jup/Sat and Solunar threw me off, too, as it pointed to a minor low yesterday, which is not like them at all! They tend to point to major lows. 

Additionally, calculating into next week Mr R Cycle Man has Sept 17 as top and Mr H Cycle Man has Sept 13-16 as a top, which the 16th would now be the top of A of Y of [X] (tomorrow being X of [X]) with B on Tuesday 9/17 before FED day and then C FED day. 

So we rally into FED Day the 18th, Mr R Man being only off 1 TD on his top, plus how many times do we rally into FED Day??  Always!!! 

Duh...

Still, the rarity of seeing a "Double Irregular Top" takes me all the way back to the 1980's PLUS:

I have seen half cycles develop, but never to this extent before. 

Sept 5 was the 16 TD top. It tagged the previous 16-4 top to the exact minute (from AUGUST 13)!  I have seen a 16+6, 16+7, and even rarely 16+8 half cycle (which are rare anyway), but I have never, ever seen a 16+9 half cycle, ever.  9/11 is the pure 32 TD top, but the set up begs for a half cycle top on FED day, the 18th.  The pure 32 TD low is Sept 19th, the very next day! WOW, repeat of 9/11 into 9/12?

I have studied the market for over 35 years, and have never seen anything like this combo coming together.  My mistake was not figuring in the usual FED Day top.  

The Peter Eliades Video is correct.  He's a respected cycle analyst. He is only one day off, too, which is extremely rare, by itself.

Oscar Carboni's OMNI flashed a caution sign today! (both video links below)

So, there you have it: My wave theory is likely correct; the cycle theory was only one day off. The "3 Gap Play" is still on, so I'm still expecting a Black Swan event, due to the Mars/Jupiter/Neptune aspect. 

So there you go.  The "Black Swan Event" has to be Sept 12: Mars sq. Jupiter early tomorrow (9/12) aspecting Jupiter opposing Neptune (9/10).  Plus Mars opposes Neptune on Saturday.  The middle zone between Sept 10-14 is guess what.... Sept 12.

FED day, LOL. 

P.S. (could  the Black Swan Event be the Draghi speech in Europe tomorrow?)

Peter Eliades Video link

Oscar Carboni's Video link

Charts:

 1 Hour Chart

2 Hour Chart:

The 32 TD Low Next Week is actually due on 9/19, the day after the FED Announcement. 9/11 to 9/12 down hard then 9/18 to 9/19 down the same time frame? 

The pattern will be XYZ [X] which is bullish, but when it double tops [Y] of (B), the pattern turns bearish because of the lower low than August 5 expected around 9/19.

This is telling me we crash lower than 9/12 on 9/18-19ish, which should hold 2870 area (9/12), it should go down below the 8/5 (9/19ish) low to create an irregular bottom either 9/19 or 9/20.  WOW!!

This it is telling me that we likely go to new highs (double top?) around Oct 18,2019 monthly Oct Option Expiry and then crash into early November to finish out the cycle 10 month low from Dec 24/26, 2018. 

It is going to get interesting because if that happens, we may see new highs by mid December, 2019 (e-wave read and 4 year cycle) and then go down harder into early 2020 around Feb/March to sync with the 4 year cycle from 2015-16. WOW!!

Benner's Cycle is telling me we see another top likely around late summer 2020 and   a final crash into late 2020 going into early 2021 for a possible double bottom.

All this what's going on right now is when the FED lower rates (lowering rates is bearish, not bullish for stocks) we have the set up for a quick crash.  Recently we have seen asset allocation from growth to value and tomorrow may be part of that shift (selling the growth) and then buying the value Into FED day and then selling again because of the rate cut, which is likely.

Here is my recent article on the Fearless Forecasters link

Into this weekend, I'm offering my Annual Subscription for $495 instead of the normal $600 starting tomorrow. Follow the link below..

Peace

BG

BluStar Market Timer

Special Report: The Perfect Storm!

SPECIAL UPDATE COMING: Cycles are extended ONE Day! 9/12 Panic coming!!!

I have drawn the chart showing the 3 Gap Play (filling all three of the gaps).  The Common Gap at 2848 should be taken out next Thursday.  I believe we have a good chance of tagging near SPX 2870 +/- tomorrow forming the X Wave of [X] of B ([Y] of B is likely due near Oct 18 and very possibly a double top near or slightly above 3028).

I forgot to mention on the chart below that tomorrow is also the Hurst 10 TD low +2.

We are between Sun Opposing Neptune (Sept 10) and Mars square Jupiter (Sept 12), so the irrational exuberance bubble will be popped, only to be reinstated again. Astro' aspects and wave/cycles turn more friendly into the 17th, but watch out for Sept 17-19! Yikes, could it be that the FED lowers rates? That, my friend, is telling us that a recession is coming! Stay tuned....

One more day left to get a 2 week trial for only $50.  After that, I will be offering discounts on my yearly subscription through the weekend for $105 off the regular $600 price.

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Peace,

BG