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Wednesday, August 5, 2020

A Look at Gann and Hurst Cycles

The Hurst cycles are 5/10/20/40 and the Gann cycles are 4/8/16/32 TD's.

Based on Hurst we had an 10+1/20+2 TD low on Thursday last week along with a Gann 32 TD low. 

Based on that cycle and the Gann cycle low of July 9, we likely see a low on the 10th, where I have a TLC low, and then a large abc type rally into the 12th.  Monday would be a Gann 8-1 from July 30th and 4 TD low from early yesterday.

GDX could be topping today on TD 8-1 as it has the appearance of an abc 'y' wave top with three trading days down hard 'z' wave into Monday also based on it's recent 3 TD down patterns.

Everything seems to be revolving around the coming jobs report on Friday.  

The rising support line on Monday is near the gap that needs to be filled near 3271 SPX.

The Dow 30 is at both a 20+2 TD top and 10 (8+2) TD top.

The 4 TD low I expected Wednesday on the SPX came a day early early on Tuesday and is now pointing ideally to an early Monday low on the 10th

Bottom Line: I expect to see 3 TD's down into early Monday to around 3271 SPX, and the precious metal market ,and then another strong rally into Wednesday next week. That's as far as I'm willing to go right now.

Monday, August 3, 2020

Another Top Due Soon?

I continue to see no evidence of a major top just yet.  There are hints, but no real evidence technically. There is a rising tops line that suggests the possibility of 3311 SPX Tuesday (tomorrow) on the upside.  The NYSE still has a look of higher prices ahead based on the Rules of Elliott, above its high on June 23.
 
GDX has an 8 TD top due later this week (Thursday ideally, but usually +/- 2 TD's). Spot Gold is showing evidence of exhaustion ($1987) and silver is showing signs of non participation as is GDX.  These may be early warning signs for the PM's. Still, I personally wouldn't underestimate the PM's yet.  A nice run up into Friday is still possible.
 
The SPX 20 week cycle low has yet to manifest and is due anywhere between August 13 and Sept 4 (this is based on June 15th being the ten week low and adding a minimum of 42 TD's (50-8) to that low or August 13 [100 TD's], Mars sq. Pluto, and Sept 4 is 116 TD's from the Mar 23 low and 58 TD's from the June 15 low and is near a TLC low of Sept 3-4).  The Dow Transports are near to making what appears to be a double top as late as Tuesday.
 
The QQQ has been oversold and is nowhere close to being overbought by any common measure I can see, but may easily make a NEG D Tuesday.  The Gann Cycles suggest another day up is possible based on the 16 TD top we last saw on Monday the 13th. Still, in any case, a pull back is due into Wednesday.
 
The varying indices are in different cycle/wave patterns, which makes it difficult for intermediate term projections.  

The orthodox low on June 11 has the look of an X Wave and now in Y with Z to come to the down side to finish the 20-week cycle low expectations.  How far down is anybody's guess, but usually 20 week lows display more power to the down side than 10 week lows. 2766 SPX may be a target as it was the last real impulse to the upside off the May 14 low, but remains to be seen.
 
The weekend astros also include Mercury in Cancer opposing Pluto in Capricorn (part of the Stellium) on  8/1 and the Sun in Leo (leader sign) sq. Uranus (banking) in Taurus on 8/2. We also have the full moon today which is often near a turn. Combinations of other minor astro cycles are also pointing to a minor top nearby. Mars in Aries sq. Jupiter in Capricorn (again against the Capricorn Stellium) hits early Tuesday before the market opens.  The mutable Pisces moon runs late on the 4th through early on the 7th and could see a low in this period. I have a proprietary TLC low due on the 5th of August along with a 4 TD low.
 
The top of the rising wedge on the SPX is 3330 Tuesday.  A breakthrough of 3311 could project up near that target top as a gap has yet to be filled near 3328/29 (remember the NYSE), so all projections remain to be seen.  Based on everything I have laid out, my gut tells me more highs are yet to come, but also to keep your finger on the trigger as there could be a quick sell-off right around the corner!

Overall, I see a choppy period ahead as my TLC lows Aug 5, Aug 10, Aug 19 (also Bradley turn) and Sept 4 suggests a possible final low on Sept 4th to fulfill the 20 week low.

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