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Sunday, November 17, 2019

A 7-8 % Drop Dead Ahead?

Nov 18 PM Close: Still looking for 3125/26 early Tuesday.  All trading days look to go forward one trading day on the former forecast as it looks now. 11/19 is the Sun/Jup 30 deg. and solunar top and Monday the Jup/Sat low. By Friday the SPX should be visiting near to 3080/81, a pull back of about 1.44%. Tops take time to manifest.

Nov 18 early AM Update: It looks as though the J/S low forecast today is occurring.  Support is near 3112 SPX. The LEO moon goes into Tuesday where a solunar high is expected.  Today may be a 4 TD low -1. Looking for 3125 this week before any meaningful top and dropping to near 3080 later this week still expected.  Dec 3 is still key topping date above 3135 before a 6.8% pull back into Dec 11 to near 2921 (not 7-8 %as I incorrectly headlined).

The top looks to be on early Monday on the Leo moon/ Bradley turn.  I'm expecting maybe 4 SPX points up on open then down to 3079/80 by Thursday into the Virgo moon nesting.  A bigger down move from Dec 9-11 into the Gemini moon, wave b to c is in the offing! Dec 9 is a 27 CD-Jupiter/Saturn top! 

Normally Dec 2 should be THE top, but there is a half day involved on Nov 29.  Dec 3 is a big Bradley turn with two topping sextiles. Looks like a verbatim repeat of July 15 - Aug 5 and possibly forward into March. 

Dec 11 is FED announcement day.  No change expected.  A bounce into the full moon on the 12th, reversed into Friday the 13th J/S low, big rally into the Leo moon 12/16; down into the  Virgo moon on the 18th.  12/19,20,22 Bradleys top to low on the 23rd?  Rally into year's end, big Bradley 12/30, topping, big drop on the 2nd of Jan to start the year?

The Bollinger Band is at exactly the same width as the July 12 date and closing. Negative astros this coming week include Mars > Scorpio 11/19 (the impeachment inquiry gets heavier?) and Mercury Sta/Direct also in Scorpio 11/20 (during inquiry, the attack on both sides gets heavy, nothing misunderstood?!)  Sun 30 deg. Jupiter on Tuesday = topping energy.  The moon will > into Virgo Tuesday and exit Thursday.  The Sun > Sagittarius 1 min before 10:00 EST Friday so watch for a 4 TD top reversal like last cycle.

Nov 25 sees a low (morning star pattern?) as Venus enters Capricorn.  Up into the new moon with the Sun in Sag. and Nep. in Pisces > Sta/Dir on the 27th, a top. A series of trines and sextiles through Dec 3 hinting at topping energy once more, one minor low in between Nov 27-Dec 2. Dec 2/3 as Jupiter > Capricorn: this aspect weighs heavy on the stock market, sobering news ahead implied. Impeachment trial announced for early 2020 on the 9th? Put option players may wish to pay attention!

SPX Daily Chart Below:

The PM's and the miners are due a rally into the week of the 7-8% stock market pull back, then a drop into Christmas.  A rally into the end of March should fulfill a nice Y Wave top.  A large drop into the week of the 10th-14th of August should full Wave Z of the larger B Wave.

Monthly GDX Chart Below:

Wave C into March of 2021 should be a huge rally.  What causes this is anybody's guess, but with the 2020 Presidential election coming in November, we may have a huge sell-off in the stock market from Oct 2020 - March 2021 due to the fallout or a contesting of the election and maybe even, gulp, civil disobedience.  I hope I'm wrong, I really do.

October 3, 2019 was the actual 9 month low from the late December 2018 low. It is due again around June-July 2020 and again around March 2021. If December 2019 copies the late July - early August sell-off as well as the aftermath rally, we should see a nice rally into March along with the PM sector. 

In order for there to be a change in the above scenario in the stock market, we need to see something like the Oct 3, 2018 top occur in early December and then a hard drop into February 2020, where the next 20 week low is due. We shall see in the fullness of time.

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Thursday, November 7, 2019

Large Sell-Off Looms!

AM Update 11/8: 

The SPX broke the rising trend line and came back above this morning.  This is a sign of weakness.  My astro cycles suggest a final top near Nov 12/13 so a low on Monday would be maximum as my solunar says today is a low.  A move down to 3035 minimum  vs. a move up to 3115 suggests more down side risk than upside at this point.  A final top is due next week, so caveat emptor!

The hourly indicators and above are sporting nasty NEG D's.  The xyz pattern, once complete, suggests one last gasp up next week.  It all depends whether we make the low tomorrow or Monday as to what comes next.  A Friday low suggests a final 11/15 top.  A Monday low suggests a Wednesday 11/13 top.

I got the gap up correct from yesterday's blog post (by just a smidgen higher than forecast by about 5 points), so I give myself an A-, not bad.

I'm looking at the low 3010's SPX for the pull back, then a move above 3100 for next week into the 3110's and that's all she wrote.  Get ready for a 20% bear market into early February!

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Wednesday, November 6, 2019

Still Looking For a Thursday Bottom, Swift Sell-Off Coming?

Update AM 11/07:  I got the top today right today (close), but believe the bottom will be either late Friday this week or Monday next week at SPX 3012/13.  From there, I see a rally into Nov 14 +/- 1 TD. Chart coming!

The set up looks like we move to SPX 3091 first before selling off.  We may easily see an engulfing cloud all the way down to 3020, same day!

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Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Drop into Thursday Expected (then higher into mid November)

I'm looking for a nice drop into Nov 7th to finish Wave [b] of C of Y.

We are completing an Irregular Megaphone Pattern with support near 3022/23.

Next week should see the completion of this up wave since Oct 3.  Much lower prices (20%) expected into early February 2020 from next week's expected top near Nov 14-15.

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Thursday, October 31, 2019

Jobs Report Rally Top?

I surely apologize for my miss! I had today up originally and the gold market down for Halloween and it was quite the opposite!

I don't know about gold short term, only that I'm bearish overall into Feb 2020.

The charts below say what I'm thinking into Friday for the stock market. I believe tomorrow to be an important top.  Looking for a double top into Nov 13 and then comes the Z Wave down into early February.  Looking for SPX 2475!

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Wednesday, October 30, 2019

FED Induced Sell Off?

Late Update PM Oct 30, 2019:

The FED caused a rather unusual set up, a "Triple Irregular Top" and two bearish WXY patterns on the Dow 30.  The actual Jupiter- Saturn Low was due Oct 31 as noted on my previous post with a Sun/Moon low due Nov 1. It looks like a low tomorrow, a big sell-off, then a huge rally into Nov 4. We should see a move to 2991 on the SPX tomorrow.

Yesterday, the S&P 500 created an irregular top off of another irregular top.  This, combined with a bearish rising wedge, tells me we see a FED induced sell-off today to at least the 2991 area. 

As you clearly saw on my previous report, the Dow 30 was forming a bearish Y wave top Monday and failed to take out the Monday top.  The NASDAQ chart yesterday was even more noticeable (not shown here) as it failed to get even close to its Monday top.

Yesterday also saw a bearish OEX P/C ratio of 5.90 combined with a bearish VIX P/C ratio of 0.17.  Today has the Transports selling off dramatically along with the Utilities coming off their bottom and rising in defensive manner (no Transport or Utility chart shown below).

The Halloween treat as I purported two days ago was that we see a stock market rally into November 1, but not so likely with the Gold Complex.

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Monday, October 28, 2019

Halloween: Trick or Treat?

The charts below tell me that there is more treat than trick, at least for the stock market.  The gold, silver and mining share market is a different story altogether.

The overall look of the stock market is one that is in a major topping phase. I'm looking for a double top around Nov 13 after an expected Nov 1 top.  This reminds me of Oct 3, 2018.  Next low due Feb 4, 2020.  Could easily be another 20% drop!

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