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Friday, April 16, 2021

Market Pushing the Cycle Extreme for a Top

Update 4/19 PM: WE held 4150 today and covered our shorts from Friday.  We are now expecting a surprising move up to a possible 4211 Tuesday and 4222/23 early Tuesday, creating yet another irregular top.  We are still expecting 4048 by Monday next week in what looks to be a wild ABC type drop. Venus will be conjunct Uranus in Taurus late on the 22nd and Mercury does the same over the weekend on the 24th as we approach the full moon in Scorpio on the 26th, creating the final low.  On the 25th, both Mercury and Venus form a T-Square to Saturn in Aquarius.


Update 4/18:

The daily and 4 hr charts look more like the Feb 16 top, but the two hour leaves room for a drop to 4050 by early April 26. There is room to drop to 4105/06 Monday and then Tuesday morning around 4081/82.  If we see a gap down to cover the gap (or gap stop) at 4024/32 early Monday, I expect an attempt to immediately rally into the 4160's and then drop down to 4105/06 by close.


I have a TLC low due 4/20 then a combo April 26/27 TLC low, and again 4/28-29 and 4/29-30. Pluto > Retro on the 27th and the moon is full late the 26th 11:30 EDT. We have been following the 21 TD cycle, which fits closely to the 29.5 calendar day moon cycle. The market looks strong into May 17-19 with some weakness into late May then higher into June 16.

Bottom Line: we are looking for a weak abc type decline into early April 26 with a strong rally into the 27th and some sideways action for the rest week.  May should start off with a bang.

If I'm wrong, I should see it easily early on Monday.






The stock market tends to top about every 16 trading days when in an up trend. The Feb 16 top was 16-2 (14) and then the next two tops have run 21 trading days each!  Today is that second 21 TD set.

The chart below, shows the general expectation for a low in early May. What we have just experienced is part of yet another rare Running Correction (the last one ran from June 8 to to Sept 24, 2020).

I fully expect the final top off the March 2020 low will be in mid June. I believe this summer is going to be a wild ride of ups and downs (mainly downs) so get ready and get your trading hat on!

Next week should be fun with gaps down and buying the dips all the way into the 23rd. After that it should get real fun!



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